After a trading surge, the company’s market cap topped the $100 billion mark. Now that the dust has settled, here are some key numbers behind the company’s unique business model.
The Last 5 Years
Since 2015, Airbnb has had an epic run. With a market cap of close to $90 billion, they are one of the largest businesses in the travel and tourism space. However, there is still plenty of room to grow: Airbnb identifies their total addressable market (TAM) to be worth $3.4 trillion. Nights and experiences booked by customers have shot up 4.5x, from 72 million in 2015 to 326 million in 2019. At the same time, the gross dollar value of these bookings has surged from $8.1 billion to $38 billion.
No Shortage Of Space
Airbnb’s ability to scale its services is reflected by its room count, which is unmatched when compared to the hotel industry. In 2019, Airbnb had nearly 5 million rooms available, a mammoth of a figure considering the next largest was Marriott at 1.3 million. The company is a giant thorn in the hotel industry’s side, and their room count is approximately the size of the five largest hotel chains combined.
A Shortage Of Profits
Despite a global presence and attractive numbers, the business of Airbnb is yet to be profitable. Airbnb has lost money every year—and the company’s cumulative losses total $2.8 billion since 2008. Not surprisingly, those losses have been exacerbated during the pandemic, a common theme for all travel and tourism stocks. Airbnb had -4 million bookings in March, and these negative bookings helped lead to a -32% decline on their top line compared to 2019. Airbnb’s net income losses so far in fiscal 2020 (Q1-Q3) are -$696 million, the largest of any year.
Silver Linings
Airbnb has demonstrated an ability to adapt during this time of uncertainty through the introduction of digital experiences. They also made the tough decision to cut 25% of their staff this year. Monthly bookings and experiences have shown signs of recovery. Since the negative bookings earlier in March, figures have crept back up to the 20 million range, near pre-pandemic levels. A resilient segment for the business of Airbnb is short-distance travel within 50 miles of guest origin. As the pandemic expanded, people are taking vacations from their abodes by visiting less densely populated neighboring communities.
Another Hot IPO
The Airbnb IPO was one of many headline makers of 2020. When it comes to initial public offerings, markets as of late have shown no shortage of exuberance. Company shares have had the tendency to surge once hitting the secondary market, reflecting investor appetite. The Airbnb IPO experienced just this: initially intending to be priced at $56-$60 a share, in just a few weeks they traded as high as $160 per share. The Renaissance IPO Index, a returns tracker for U.S. public offerings, reports that IPOs are up roughly 108% in the last calendar year, experiencing one of the best years on record. But the aftermath of an IPO can just as likely go sour. Public companies are subject to more strenuous regulation relative to the private markets. And with a near $90 billion valuation, future expectations are high for Airbnb. The company will have to woo shareholders in the coming quarters to keep momentum, which likely means showing strides in an uncertain travel and tourism landscape. on Last year, stock and bond returns tumbled after the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates at the fastest speed in 40 years. It was the first time in decades that both asset classes posted negative annual investment returns in tandem. Over four decades, this has happened 2.4% of the time across any 12-month rolling period. To look at how various stock and bond asset allocations have performed over history—and their broader correlations—the above graphic charts their best, worst, and average returns, using data from Vanguard.
How Has Asset Allocation Impacted Returns?
Based on data between 1926 and 2019, the table below looks at the spectrum of market returns of different asset allocations:
We can see that a portfolio made entirely of stocks returned 10.3% on average, the highest across all asset allocations. Of course, this came with wider return variance, hitting an annual low of -43% and a high of 54%.
A traditional 60/40 portfolio—which has lost its luster in recent years as low interest rates have led to lower bond returns—saw an average historical return of 8.8%. As interest rates have climbed in recent years, this may widen its appeal once again as bond returns may rise.
Meanwhile, a 100% bond portfolio averaged 5.3% in annual returns over the period. Bonds typically serve as a hedge against portfolio losses thanks to their typically negative historical correlation to stocks.
A Closer Look at Historical Correlations
To understand how 2022 was an outlier in terms of asset correlations we can look at the graphic below:
The last time stocks and bonds moved together in a negative direction was in 1969. At the time, inflation was accelerating and the Fed was hiking interest rates to cool rising costs. In fact, historically, when inflation surges, stocks and bonds have often moved in similar directions. Underscoring this divergence is real interest rate volatility. When real interest rates are a driving force in the market, as we have seen in the last year, it hurts both stock and bond returns. This is because higher interest rates can reduce the future cash flows of these investments. Adding another layer is the level of risk appetite among investors. When the economic outlook is uncertain and interest rate volatility is high, investors are more likely to take risk off their portfolios and demand higher returns for taking on higher risk. This can push down equity and bond prices. On the other hand, if the economic outlook is positive, investors may be willing to take on more risk, in turn potentially boosting equity prices.
Current Investment Returns in Context
Today, financial markets are seeing sharp swings as the ripple effects of higher interest rates are sinking in. For investors, historical data provides insight on long-term asset allocation trends. Over the last century, cycles of high interest rates have come and gone. Both equity and bond investment returns have been resilient for investors who stay the course.
