Want to fund a giant 80 million person megacity in the Pearl River Delta for $322 billion? Piece of cake. Re-build the Silk Road for up to $1 trillion? Not an issue. But China doesn’t only show off its deep pockets domestically. The country has also been extremely active on the global market, buying up everything from natural resources in Africa to luxurious real estate in Manhattan. In total, Chinese companies have spent over $1 trillion on overseas investment over the last decade, and this has only accelerated in recent years as investors seek to acquire safe haven assets abroad.
America First?
Today’s infographic comes from SCMP, and it shows where Chinese overseas investment has been going, with a particular focus on the United States between 2000 and 2016. Cumulatively, China has put $109.5 billion into the U.S. during this time period, with about 70% of that money coming from private companies. The sectors that have received the most Chinese investment so far include real estate and hospitality ($29.5 billion), information technology ($14.2 billion), energy ($13.4 billion), and entertainment ($8.8 billion). According to Forbes, here were the five biggest investments made in the U.S. in 2016:
- HNA Tourism Group gets 25% stake in Hilton for $6.5 billion This deal helps Chinese conglomerate HNA and Hilton to take advantage of China’s growing tourism market both in China and internationally.
- Tianjin Tianhai buys Ingram Micro for $6.1 billion This is the biggest purchase of an American information technology company by a Chinese firm so far. Ingram Micro is the world’s largest wholesaler in technology products and services.
- Haier Group buys GE’s appliance business for $5.6 billion Haier is a massive consumer electronics and appliances company in China, with roughly $30 billion of revenue per year. However, the company has yet to make inroads in the North American market. This made buying GE’s appliances division a very strategic opportunity for the company.
- Anbang Insurance pays $5.5 billion for Strategic Hotels And Resorts One of China’s largest insurance companies bought 15 luxury properties, including the Four Seasons in Washington, D.C. and the JW Marriot Essex House in New York. The deal was originally valued at $6.5 billion, but one of the hotels was dropped after security concerns were raised due to its proximity to a U.S. naval base in San Diego. That property is worth approximately $1 billion.
- Dalian Wanda buys Legendary Entertainment for $3.5 billion Legendary Entertainment is a Hollywood production company that has the rights to popular films such as The Dark Knight, Inception, Jurassic World and Straight Outta Compton. on The good news is that the Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasury, and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation are taking action to restore confidence and take the appropriate measures to help provide stability in the market. With this in mind, the above infographic from New York Life Investments looks at the factors that impact bonds, how different types of bonds have historically performed across market environments, and the current bond market volatility in a broader context.
Bond Market Returns
Bonds had a historic year in 2022, posting one of the worst returns ever recorded. As interest rates rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, it pushed bond prices lower due to their inverse relationship. In a rare year, bonds dropped 13%.
Source: FactSet, 01/02/2023.
Bond prices are only one part of a bond’s total return—the other looks at the income a bond provides. As interest rates have increased in the last year, it has driven higher bond yields in 2023.
Source: YCharts, 3/20/2023.
With this recent performance in mind, let’s look at some other key factors that impact the bond market.
Factors Impacting Bond Markets
Interest rates play a central role in bond market dynamics. This is because they affect a bond’s price. When rates are rising, existing bonds with lower rates are less valuable and prices decline. When rates are dropping, existing bonds with higher rates are more valuable and their prices rise. In March, the Federal Reserve raised rates 25 basis points to fall within the 4.75%-5.00% range, a level not seen since September 2007. Here are projections for where the federal funds rate is headed in 2023:
Federal Reserve Projection*: 5.1% Economist Projections**: 5.3%
*Based on median estimates in the March summary of quarterly economic projections.**Projections based on March 10-15 Bloomberg economist survey. Together, interest rates and the macroenvironment can have a positive or negative effect on bonds.
Positive
Here are three variables that may affect bond prices in a positive direction:
Lower Inflation: Reduces likelihood of interest rate hikes. Lower Interest Rates: When rates are falling, bond prices are typically higher. Recession: Can prompt a cut in interest rates, boosting bond prices.
Negative
On the other hand, here are variables that may negatively impact bond prices:
Higher Inflation: Can increase the likelihood of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Rising Interest Rates: Interest rate hikes lead bond prices to fall. Weaker Fundamentals: When a bond’s credit risk gets worse, its price can drop. Credit risk indicates the chance of a default, the risk of a bond issuer not making interest payments within a given time period.
Bonds have been impacted by these negative factors since inflation started rising in March 2021.
Fixed Income Opportunities
Below, we show the types of bonds that have had the best performance during rising rates and recessions.
Source: Derek Horstmeyer, George Mason University 12/3/2022. As we can see, U.S. ultrashort bonds performed the best during rising rates. Mortgage bonds outperformed during recessions, averaging 11.4% returns, but with higher volatility. U.S. long-term bonds had 7.7% average returns, the best across all market conditions. In fact, they were also a close second during recessions. When rates are rising, ultrashort bonds allow investors to capture higher rates when they mature, often with lower historical volatility.
A Closer Look at Bond Market Volatility
While bond market volatility has jumped this year, current dislocations may provide investment opportunities. Bond dislocations allow investors to buy at lower prices, factoring in that the fundamental quality of the bond remains strong. With this in mind, here are two areas of the bond market that may provide opportunities for investors:
Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds: Higher credit quality makes them potentially less vulnerable to increasing interest rates. Intermediate Bonds (2-10 Years): Allow investors to lock in higher rates.
Both types of bonds focus on quality and capturing higher yields when faced with challenging market conditions.
Finding the Upside
Much of the volatility seen in the banking sector was due to banks buying bonds during the pandemic—or even earlier—at a time when interest rates were historically low. Since then, rates have climbed considerably. Should rates moderate or stop increasing, this may present better market conditions for bonds. In this way, today’s steep discount in bond markets may present an attractive opportunity for price appreciation. At the same time, investors can potentially lock in strong yields as inflation may subside in the coming years ahead. Learn more about bond investing strategies with New York Life Investments.
